Stupid Reasons People Bet on Horses...

 

                                                                   Bunny's Revenge ????

We're going to try and inject a little humor into the blog here. If this lasts, you'll see we don't take anything seriously. Plus, we have a bit of a 'voice' when we write (I had a political blog about 10-12 years ago), so we're trying to get back into that. Makes reading this a little easier....

If you've done this enough, or just watched people who know nothing about horse racing decide who to pick every Kentucky Derby Day, you know people come up with the craziest reasons for picking a certain horse. I see this every year at the Belmont. Those cigar-smoking Jason Mraz looking kids with the Fedora hat drive me up a wall.... But, they have their opinion, and they help drive up the odds on my horse, and make me more money. The more, the merrier!

So, here are some of our favorite, dumb reasons for picking a horse.....

#1 : OOOOHHH, LOOK AT THE PRETTY COLORS !!

My sister is the world's guiltiest offender of this. Every Kentucky Derby, she gives her list of which silks are the best and ugliest - like the Mr. Blackwell of Horse Racing. Does she know that each silk represents a certain stable? Probably not. I think her guess is that they just pick one out, like J. Lo picking out an outfit before the Oscars. Sometimes, racing is ugly.....

#2 : DUDE, I'M TELLING YOU..... NUMBER 2 NEVER WINS

Bobby, who is probably the only reader of this, is guilty of this too. Thanks for playing, My Friend!!! He only roots for Numbers 4 and 6. Why? It's the color of his favorite football team, the Pittsburgh Steelers. For those who don't know, at pretty much every track, the colors for the numbers are the same. For your education, and to help you pick which ones to bet one, here they are:

#1: Red

#2: White w/Black Number

#3: Blue

#4: Yellow w/ Black Number

#5: Green

#6: Black w/ Yellow Number

#7: Orange w/Black Number

#8: Pink w/Black Number

#9: Aqua w/Black Number

#10: Purple

#11: Gray w/Red Number

#12: Light Green w/Black Number..... OK, past that, and  get lost. There is no mathematical fact that one number is luckier than another - although I have done well with the 6's lately!

#3 : MY GOD, THAT IS THE PRETTIEST HORSE I HAVE EVER SEEN!!

Guilty as Charged on this one! Belmont 2019..... I'm making my picks ahead, which ALWAYS works out better. I know Tacitus is good enough to finish in the Top Two, but probably not a winner. I do some research, and Anthony Stabile, who is a pretty good handicapper, picks Sir Winston at 10-1. I've seen my share of Semi-Upset winners at the Belmont, so I say OK. But the bets aren't set until that day. I take one look at Intrepid Heart..... Quite possibly the best looking horse that I have ever seen: Smoky Black, beautiful mane, muscular - a perfect looking horse. I can't tell you where he finished. All I remember is seeing the two horses that I was SUPPOSED to bet on finish first and second. Did I forget to mention that I lost $1000 that I promised to give to a friend who had his leg amputated at a fundraiser if it won? Sometimes, racing is ugly.....

                                  Hey, you can't go wrong with Chad and Irad, can you/???
       

#4 : THE TRAINER/JOCKEY COMBO

This is my weakest argument by far. Because yes - a good jockey and a good trainer is important. But in the end, its THE HORSE that matters. Especially at the top tier tracks, there are a lot of great jocks and trainers. Saying the jockey/trainer is most important is like saying that John Glenn could get a Roman Candle to The Moon as easily as a Rocket, because he's one hell of an Astronaut..... Top Jocks and Trainers win maybe 25-30% of the time. That means they lose 70-75% of the time - at reduced odds - and in this format, going straight line with a certain jock o trainer won't pay off.

                       Can We Just Name a Horse Saratoga Bourbon, and Get It Overwith??

#5 : WHAT'S IN A NAME? NOTHING.

Let's go back to the Kentucky Derby. It's a celebrity event, and like how most celebs don't know much about Football, Baseball, Basketball and Hockey, they know EVEN LESS about Horse Racing. I won't even talk about Jimmy Fallon's Puppy Race (Jesus, help us!).... Then right before the race, we get 60 celebrities pick a winner. It goes like this..... 

"I'm from Detroit, so I'm going with Motor City Madman at 68-1!"

"My favorite color is Blue, so my choice is Aquanet!"

" I have ten fingers, so I'm going with the Number Ten horse - whatever his name is!"

Names mean nothing.... But even a broken clock tells the right time twice a day. I once misread a racing form and picked the wrong horse. It finished second, and I hit a $175 exacta. That happened once...

For all it's beauty, power and excitement, Horse Racing a is a dry science. Oddsmakers know exactly what they're doing. Being right is hard enough. Being stupid only makes it tougher - although I have to say the 6 horse with pretty colors and the cool name looks like a winner!

mr